Tuesday, 25 October 2011

Strictly Come Dancing - Punditry and predictions!

It's been confirmed, I am officially diseased with 'Shingle Bells' and I must admit to feeling a bit rubbish.

I desperately needed something to cheer me up this afternoon, so I've combined my two favourite things. Strictly Come Dancing (or Dancing with the Stars if you're from across the pond) and spreadsheets.

Stay with me.

I recently revealed my past as a disco dancing champion and semi professional modern jiver.

Ashton-Under-Lyne shopping centre 1997.

So when it comes to X-Factor vs Strictly for Saturday evening viewing, the winner should be no surprise. The tango and the samba win every time. 

Tris & I even went to see the live show a few years ago!

Rachel Stevens & Vincent.


We were treated to the legendary Jill Halfpenny jive (sorry, the video cuts off a bit soon, before they get the chance to get going).

Tris voted for Julian Clary. He loves Strictly nearly as much as I do and pretends to be Bruno Tonioli when it comes to awarding the marks.

Bruno Tonioli and Tristan Pocock - separated at birth!


Grand finale
Every year I sit and I watch the opening credits of the latest series of Strictly and as contestants start to be eliminated, it always seems to happen in clusters according to what order people appear in the opening credits.

So with a bit of time on my hands, and delirious with a shingles induced temperature, I decided to investigate once and for all, to see if I can predict what the elimination / winning order is going to be this year.

I've looked back over the last five years and compared the opening sequence with the order in which the contestants finished in the competition - I've ranked them and put them in a spreadsheet (adjusting for the fact that 2008 and 2009 there were 16 rather than 14 couples). 

Yes, I really do have that much time on my hands.

Some positions do seem to be a bit luckier than others, but the patterns are more to do with where the competitors are in relation to each other.

Spreadsheet analysis of Strictly Come Dancing 2006 - 2010

I've already predicted the elimination of the first three correctly, so I've decided to put my neck on the line and make a further prediction. I've checked it against Ladbrooks betting odds, and while  there is some similarity, it's not identical.

So here you go, based on my system (opening credits ), my predictions for Strictly Come Dancing 2011 are:

1st Jason Donovan
2nd Harry Judd
3rd Chelsee Healey
4th Alex Jones
5th Robbie Savage
6th Holly Valance
7th Russell Grant
8th Anita Dobson
9th Lulu
10th Audley Harrison 
11th Nancy Dell' Olio
12th Rory Bremner (gone)
13th Dan Lobb (gone)
14th Edwina Currie (gone)

Right, I think I'll tweet Zoe Ball and see what she's got to say about my system!


PS. My apologies to anyone from outside the UK reading this - you probably neither know, nor care about any of these people.

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